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Monday | July 14, 2014

Looking Back...

  • The benchmark 10-yr Treasury yield declined each of the 5 trading sessions last week for an overall decline of 12 bps. This bid to treasuries was largely driven by global growth concerns following the release of disappointing manufacturing data out of China and Japan and concerns regarding Portugal's stability after their second largest lender missed debt payments.
  • The minutes from the June FOMC meeting were released on Wednesday and indicated some members are concerned that investors may be taking excessive risk. They mentioned that investors are too complacent about the economic outlook and "were not factoring in sufficient uncertainty about the path of the economy and monetary policy." Some officials also expressed concern regarding recent low levels of volatility.
  • While the minutes gave no further clarity regarding the timing of the first rate hike, there was a strong consensus among members that QE will end with an additional $15 bln reduction in asset purchases in October.
  • Economic data for the week was light, with the only noteworthy release being the weekly Initial Jobless Claims which came in at 304k, beating estimates by 11k.

Looking Ahead...

  • Chair Yellen is scheduled to deliver her semiannual monetary policy report to the Senate on Tuesday and the House on Wednesday. This speech is on the back of a draft bill proposed last week that would require the Fed to determine a more formulaic process for rising rates.
  • This week features a slew of top tier data including Retail Sales, PPI, and Housing Starts, each of which is forecasted to show an increase over May's numbers.

The information represented herein was obtained from various sources, which we believe to be reliable.  Neither the information presented nor opinions expressed constitutes an offer to buy or sell any security. And it is not intended to guide the investor on which securities to buy, or when to buy or sell.


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